Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.182762 1.342029 1.510510 1.701576 1.911789 2.135561 2.391322
2025-02-02 0.956894 1.174774 1.419659 1.713602 2.055074 2.437461 2.896165
2025-02-09 0.774207 1.026510 1.327099 1.707622 2.172188 2.716469 3.397553
2025-02-16 0.632005 0.905005 1.249463 1.708386 2.295404 3.012299 3.944190
2025-02-23 0.498985 0.774453 1.143191 1.660348 2.352837 3.233008 4.419067
2025-03-02 0.382728 0.646908 1.022985 1.578661 2.357310 3.386213 4.821256
2025-03-09 0.311213 0.570934 0.962778 1.570221 2.456968 3.669689 5.412579
2025-03-16 0.248508 0.496603 0.893890 1.540098 2.522088 3.910326 5.963138
2025-03-23 0.213018 0.460135 0.877519 1.585564 2.699233 4.318319 6.770059
2025-03-30 0.166975 0.395165 0.804992 1.533927 2.724960 4.510121 7.283333
2025-04-06 0.135004 0.349205 0.757141 1.515474 2.798493 4.775107 7.916464
2025-04-13 0.107472 0.305256 0.705412 1.483161 2.845242 5.000729 8.502512
2025-04-20 0.091201 0.282759 0.692448 1.521217 3.017560 5.441532 9.454875
2025-04-27 0.076650 0.260286 0.675876 1.550797 3.178436 5.875559 10.423256
2025-05-04 0.062911 0.235582 0.650310 1.560039 3.304541 6.261720 11.338890
2025-05-11 0.051785 0.214164 0.627909 1.572474 3.437112 6.666564 12.305995
2025-05-18 0.040056 0.186225 0.584834 1.536650 3.476880 6.917061 13.035790
2025-05-25 0.029329 0.156199 0.529733 1.466860 3.444571 7.040122 13.560472
2025-06-01 0.023423 0.140215 0.506805 1.464348 3.542153 7.395389 14.490341
2025-06-08 0.018022 0.123022 0.476430 1.440121 3.593290 7.669486 15.293838
2025-06-15 0.015466 0.116755 0.475913 1.486613 3.792976 8.224051 16.605197
2025-06-22 0.011372 0.100071 0.439760 1.440249 3.793117 8.408761 17.276859
2025-06-29 0.008732 0.088738 0.417274 1.424778 3.857205 8.715540 18.176038